The Luney Bin: H. Wade Minter

My old glasses finally bent to the point of annoyance a few weeks ago, so I finally got around this week to getting an eye exam and new glasses. I decided to change up the look a bit this go-round. I have tended to go for wire rims or no rims over the past several years, so this is a fairly significant departure.

Holly thinks I look like Elvis Costello now. I’m kind of digging them. They’re different, that’s for sure.

At the very least, it’s nice to be able to focus on objects again.

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In the political forum on Inara BBS, I jumped in and gave my thoughts on how the primary races were shaping up, and implications for the 2008 elections. Here’s a mostly-verbatim copy of what I saw.

Bias filter: I’m planning on voting Democrat in ’08, based on the choices of any Republican with a reasonable chance of winning. I think the Bush administration is filled with lying sacks of shit, so I’m pretty much for anyone who’s against them.

So here’s the breakdown:

• Hillary Clinton – A fundraising machine and the choice of the establishment. Has quietly and effectively built up a huge network of big-donor/PAC support. Seems to be playing it safe so far, keeping on the margins and not taking any big risks. She’s acting like it’s her nomination to lose, which is probably accurate, so she’s playing not to lose. Big drawback, as I mentioned, is that nearly all Republicans and a good portion of indepedents hate her with the fury of a thousand suns for reasons that they will never be able to explain. Even money on whether or not she could beat a decently-supported Republican, even with everything going against the GOP.

• Barack Obama – Inspiring speaker, and is hitting a lot of good points in his speeches. Can both inspire the core Democratic constituencies as well as score points with the military/economic sectors that have been hurt by Bush. Doesn’t have a lot of Senate baggage that can be used against him. Drawbacks: Black, which will inspire a lot of Republican turnout, though not as much as the Republicans probably hope. Doesn’t have a lot of establishment backing, which could hurt in the primaries. Name sounds Islamic, which will help feed Republican soundbites that have been used to devestating effect in the past. Still, probably the best candidate in the general election.

• John Edwards – Already tagged with a “loser” label by being on the Kerry ticket. Not as establishment as Hillary or as populist as Obama, which will hurt his ability to establish himself in an area. Trying to position himself as champion of the poor, but it’s a risky strategy when the press has shown itself so willing to run with stories about his million-dollar home and ambulance chaser background. Is in the midst of having his own Howard Dean moment with the ZOMG $400 HAIRCUT. Will falter quickly. His best chance is a VP slot, but he’s proven he can’t help win in the South, so he’s probably a liability even in that spot.

• Bill Richardson – Great resume, great background, poor presentation. Probably the strongest candidate on merit alone, with his international and gubenatorial experience. Struggling to get his message out. Probably the most likely to get asked into the VP slot, as he can be the policy balance to another candidate’s charisma and fundraising. Could also energize the Hispanic vote, even in the VP role.

• Joe Biden – Milquetoast Senator in the John Kerry mold. No distinguishing policy traction to establish himself, plus long terms in the Senate are not conducive to having a good record for a Presidential run these days.

• Dennis Kuchinich – Hot wife, liberal cred, but the Ron Paul of the Democrats. No chance.

• Gravel, Dodd – Meh.

Best Slate From Above: Obama/Richardson

Most Likely Slate From Above: Clinton/Edwards

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In the political forum on Inara BBS, I jumped in and gave my thoughts on how the primary races were shaping up, and implications for the 2008 elections. Here’s a mostly-verbatim copy of what I saw.

Bias filter: I think the current Republican administration is horrible, as are those who support their policies, and don’t think they have a very strong shot at retaining the White House in ’08.

So here’s the breakdown:

• Rudy Giuliani – He’d better keep beating the 9/11 drum, because it’s about all he’s got. He gets some plus points for a successful run as NYC mayor, but his pro-life history will cost him some points among the Jesus set, and his affairs, remarriages, and shitty treatment of his wives/kids will cost him among the middle-aged Republican Mom set. Dogged by scandal with the Bernard Kerick incident as well. Essentially a one-trick pony at this point.

• Fred Thompson – Gets a huge boost initially because he’s not one of the current douchebags running, but beyond that, I don’t think he has a ton of staying power. Has the negatives of being a slimy former lobbyist, and not offering much in terms of policy direction. If someone can hammer him on his mole role in the Nixon hearings, that will also hurt him. Isn’t the second Reagan that he’s pimping himself out to be, and doesn’t show a lot of fire for a long race at this point.

• John McCain – How the mighty have fallen. A classic case of how you can’t serve two masters. The right wing has never really liked him because of his history of independence, and his fans in the center/left all abandoned him after he started sucking Bush’s cock. Now a man without a country, I don’t anticipate him making it past the second primary. I could see him as a potential VP, though, if the winner wanted to “show how independent they are.”

• Mitt Romney – Has the same problem as Rudy: A centrist social policy past while now trying to suck up to the Jesus freaks. Could be targeted for shifting political whims. Him vs. Obama could present a problem for Republican voters – do they vote for the black man or the Mormon? He’s probably the cleanest Republican out there in terms of skeletons, though, and generally comes across reasonably well.

• Ron Paul – In spite of internet hype, has no chance. Too far outside of the establishment to make it through the “Preaching to the choir” primary system, though he’d probably fare better in the general election, especially against an Establishment Democrat. Could be an interesting VP pick for a candidate who wants to show that they’re “outside the system,” though I have my doubts about whether or not he’d play well with others. Also, in spite of the Libertarian hype, has some decidedly non-Libertarian stances (religion, abortion rights).

• Mike Huckabee – Got a surprise 2nd place finish in the Iowa straw poll. Probably the most Jesusy candidate out there, which will help him in the primaries. I think that the influence of the Christian Right nationally is on the wane, though. I could see him as a VP to bring in the Jesus vote, though, if he continues to do well.

• Brownback, Hunter, Tancredo – interchangable parts trying to burrow into the Christians like a tick. Nearly zero chance.

As to who will emrge, my guess is either Romney or Thompson. Thompson probably plays better in the primaries, but I think Romney is the stronger candidate against a given Democrat, though. Both would have an uphill road against any sane Democrat, though, especially with the housing market downturn and Iraq playing against the incumbents.

Best Slate From Above: Romney/McCain

Most Likely Slate From Above: Thompson/Huckabee

We’ll check back later in the year to see how things are going.

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It’s been a fairly hellish summer.

Not with the family, as Holly and the kids are fine. Work’s good too, if busy. No, I managed to get myself into another job.

Holly and I somehow manage to get the shaft any time we try to help people out. A year or so ago, Holly agreed to serve on the board of a Mom’s club as well as her sorority’s UNC chapter advisory board, at which point everyone above her promptly quit and left her holding the bag on both. She was pregnant with Kate at the time, so that was hassle she did not need, and it took her months to get everything straight. After that, she said “Never serve on a board again.”

I didn’t listen to her. At the end of the spring, when Hayley’s preschool was running elections, I somehow thought it would be a good idea to volunteer to be board president. How bad could it be? It was a great preschool, two teachers, a new site on the way. Well, I quickly found out how bad it could be, when the new site fell through and both teachers quit right after the school year ended. So I got stuck with a preschool with no teachers and no building.

The parents were insistent that one teacher in particular return, so I spent lots of time trying to talk to her on the phone during her European vacation to get her to come back. All the while, as her return was unclear, parents were dropping out left and right. I finally did get the teacher to agree to return for the 2007-2008 school year, but by the time she committed, we were down to around 7 kids. Then the teacher made some more demands and wanted to reconsider, and we dropped to 4 kids. Finally, a week or so ago, she decided that she really did want to retire.

Fortunately, I had been working on a backup plan, and managed to find a great teacher willing to step in and teach, along with a very enthusiastic assistant. And I managed to get us another half-year in our current building, and one of our parents has a great lead on long-term space. So on the whole, aside from the enrollment, things are finally looking up. There’s a great teacher with some awesome ideas, a lower time crunch on finding new space, and an amazing lead on land we could use for years to come. The biggest pain was that while the old teacher was hemming and hawing about her decision, we lost a ton of kids. Now we’re set as far as plans go, but the enrollment has suffered.

So that’s been my summer, pretty much. Living with a constant stomachache as I try to keep things in line until things are set to move forward. And they are now, which is good, but I’m still suffering the after-effects. Without the help of a couple of parents who have really done a ton to help, I don’t know if we’d have made it through.

So the lesson is: “Don’t volunteer for boards.” I’ll remember that next time, Holly.

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