Election 2008: Wade Handicaps The Democrats

Posted on August 19th, 2007 in Politics by minter

In the political forum on Inara BBS, I jumped in and gave my thoughts on how the primary races were shaping up, and implications for the 2008 elections. Here’s a mostly-verbatim copy of what I saw.

Bias filter: I’m planning on voting Democrat in ’08, based on the choices of any Republican with a reasonable chance of winning. I think the Bush administration is filled with lying sacks of shit, so I’m pretty much for anyone who’s against them.

So here’s the breakdown:

  • Hillary Clinton – A fundraising machine and the choice of the establishment. Has quietly and effectively built up a huge network of big-donor/PAC support. Seems to be playing it safe so far, keeping on the margins and not taking any big risks. She’s acting like it’s her nomination to lose, which is probably accurate, so she’s playing not to lose. Big drawback, as I mentioned, is that nearly all Republicans and a good portion of indepedents hate her with the fury of a thousand suns for reasons that they will never be able to explain. Even money on whether or not she could beat a decently-supported Republican, even with everything going against the GOP.
  • Barack Obama – Inspiring speaker, and is hitting a lot of good points in his speeches. Can both inspire the core Democratic constituencies as well as score points with the military/economic sectors that have been hurt by Bush. Doesn’t have a lot of Senate baggage that can be used against him. Drawbacks: Black, which will inspire a lot of Republican turnout, though not as much as the Republicans probably hope. Doesn’t have a lot of establishment backing, which could hurt in the primaries. Name sounds Islamic, which will help feed Republican soundbites that have been used to devestating effect in the past. Still, probably the best candidate in the general election.
  • John Edwards – Already tagged with a “loser” label by being on the Kerry ticket. Not as establishment as Hillary or as populist as Obama, which will hurt his ability to establish himself in an area. Trying to position himself as champion of the poor, but it’s a risky strategy when the press has shown itself so willing to run with stories about his million-dollar home and ambulance chaser background. Is in the midst of having his own Howard Dean moment with the ZOMG $400 HAIRCUT. Will falter quickly. His best chance is a VP slot, but he’s proven he can’t help win in the South, so he’s probably a liability even in that spot.
  • Bill Richardson – Great resume, great background, poor presentation. Probably the strongest candidate on merit alone, with his international and gubenatorial experience. Struggling to get his message out. Probably the most likely to get asked into the VP slot, as he can be the policy balance to another candidate’s charisma and fundraising. Could also energize the Hispanic vote, even in the VP role.
  • Joe Biden – Milquetoast Senator in the John Kerry mold. No distinguishing policy traction to establish himself, plus long terms in the Senate are not conducive to having a good record for a Presidential run these days.
  • Dennis Kuchinich – Hot wife, liberal cred, but the Ron Paul of the Democrats. No chance.
  • Gravel, Dodd – Meh.

Best Slate From Above: Obama/Richardson

Most Likely Slate From Above: Clinton/Edwards

Election 2008: Wade Handicaps The Republicans

Posted on August 19th, 2007 in Politics by minter

In the political forum on Inara BBS, I jumped in and gave my thoughts on how the primary races were shaping up, and implications for the 2008 elections. Here’s a mostly-verbatim copy of what I saw.

Bias filter: I think the current Republican administration is horrible, as are those who support their policies, and don’t think they have a very strong shot at retaining the White House in ’08.

So here’s the breakdown:

  • Rudy Giuliani – He’d better keep beating the 9/11 drum, because it’s about all he’s got. He gets some plus points for a successful run as NYC mayor, but his pro-life history will cost him some points among the Jesus set, and his affairs, remarriages, and shitty treatment of his wives/kids will cost him among the middle-aged Republican Mom set. Dogged by scandal with the Bernard Kerick incident as well. Essentially a one-trick pony at this point.
  • Fred Thompson – Gets a huge boost initially because he’s not one of the current douchebags running, but beyond that, I don’t think he has a ton of staying power. Has the negatives of being a slimy former lobbyist, and not offering much in terms of policy direction. If someone can hammer him on his mole role in the Nixon hearings, that will also hurt him. Isn’t the second Reagan that he’s pimping himself out to be, and doesn’t show a lot of fire for a long race at this point.
  • John McCain – How the mighty have fallen. A classic case of how you can’t serve two masters. The right wing has never really liked him because of his history of independence, and his fans in the center/left all abandoned him after he started sucking Bush’s cock. Now a man without a country, I don’t anticipate him making it past the second primary. I could see him as a potential VP, though, if the winner wanted to “show how independent they are.”
  • Mitt Romney – Has the same problem as Rudy: A centrist social policy past while now trying to suck up to the Jesus freaks. Could be targeted for shifting political whims. Him vs. Obama could present a problem for Republican voters – do they vote for the black man or the Mormon? He’s probably the cleanest Republican out there in terms of skeletons, though, and generally comes across reasonably well.
  • Ron Paul – In spite of internet hype, has no chance. Too far outside of the establishment to make it through the “Preaching to the choir” primary system, though he’d probably fare better in the general election, especially against an Establishment Democrat. Could be an interesting VP pick for a candidate who wants to show that they’re “outside the system,” though I have my doubts about whether or not he’d play well with others. Also, in spite of the Libertarian hype, has some decidedly non-Libertarian stances (religion, abortion rights).
  • Mike Huckabee – Got a surprise 2nd place finish in the Iowa straw poll. Probably the most Jesusy candidate out there, which will help him in the primaries. I think that the influence of the Christian Right nationally is on the wane, though. I could see him as a VP to bring in the Jesus vote, though, if he continues to do well.
  • Brownback, Hunter, Tancredo – interchangable parts trying to burrow into the Christians like a tick. Nearly zero chance.

As to who will emrge, my guess is either Romney or Thompson. Thompson probably plays better in the primaries, but I think Romney is the stronger candidate against a given Democrat, though. Both would have an uphill road against any sane Democrat, though, especially with the housing market downturn and Iraq playing against the incumbents.

Best Slate From Above: Romney/McCain

Most Likely Slate From Above: Thompson/Huckabee

We’ll check back later in the year to see how things are going.

And Now, Your Moment Of Zen

Posted on February 10th, 2007 in Politics by minter

From the N&O article “Judge Is Asked To Remove Nifong“:

The filing by Beth Brewer, made under a state law that establishes a procedure for removing a district attorney, accuses the prosecutor of willful misconduct and conduct prejudicial to the administration of justice, which brings the office into disrepute. The accusations focus on Nifong’s actions in the Duke University lacrosse sexual assault case.

“I’m looking forward to having the case heard and having the opportunity to have my side told publicly,” Nifong told the Associated Press. “I would really hope that everybody would be willing to withhold judgment until that procedure that is already in place had been given an opportunity to work.

Election Day 2006 Recap

Posted on November 8th, 2006 in Politics by minter

(**Update:** Confused Taylor and Hayes. Thanks Mark!)

It was a fairly exciting day yesterday. Holly and I braved the rain with Hayley to go to our new polling place (our post-move voter cards arrived the day before). There were already around 550 votes cast in our polling place by the time we arrived aroun 11am, which seemed to be a good turnout. For the first time in my 13 years of voting, I voted an almost straight Democratic ticket (the exception being Wake County Sheriff Donnie Harrison, a Republican who I think is doing a great job). Yes, the douchebaggery coming out of all levels of the Republican party, both state and national, was the straw that broke the elephant’s back.

But while we’re here, let’s look at some interesting local and national races:

US House NC13: Brad Miller (D) vs. Vernon Robinson®

Readers know how I feel about Cap’n Crazy, but I was a little worried that enough rubes would be suckered in by his rhetoric to make it a close race. No need to worry – Miller trounces him 64-36 in a rout. Whew.

Of course, Robinson was still on Planet Nutso late in the night, tossing out this gem of a quote:

“I think we did a great job of giving voters a choice between a mainstream conservative and the most liberal Democrat in the South,” Robinson said. “Voters have made their decision, and we’re just waiting for the results to come in.”

Seriously, just shut your fucking mouth and go back to running for Mayor of Perennial Loserville against Alan Keyes. You’re a blowhard who hoped that you could get some press by making the most inflamatory statements that you could think of, but it backfired. See you in a couple years when you make your next failed run at office. Ass.

NC Supreme Court Chief Justice: Sarah Parker (D) vs. Rusty Duke®

If there’s one thing that’s scary, it’s a judicial candidate who trumpets his “conservative values” and does most of his campaigning on the church circuit. Remember, according to them, you’re not an “activist judge” if you legislate Jesus from the bench. So I didn’t hold out much hope in that voters in North Carolina could resist the siren song of “conservative judicial values”. But lo and behold, Sarah Parker pulls off the win by nearly a 2-1 margin. Awesome. In fact, Democratic judges in these technically nonpartisan races won most of their races.

Wake County School Bond

This was one we were watching closely, having now two kids that are slated for the Wake County Public School system. The enrollment is growing by leaps and bounds – I think Wake is the 20-somethingth largest school system in the nation now. More and more kids come into the system every year, and the buildings can’t hold them all. The school bond might not be perfect, but it’s at least addressing the issue of growth.

Compare that to the bond opponents, who are A) apparently all sniffing glue (see “Uncle Ruckus” and his ilk on the N&O blogs), and B) presented no alternatives to the bond whatsoever. They didn’t want the bond, they didn’t want to raise taxes to cover school growth, they didn’t want more year-round schools to make better use of the existing facilities. I guess they were hoping for magical unicorns to come down from rainbows and cause new schools to appear. Now they can take their pithy slogans like “NOvember” and cry on their signs for a while.

Virginia Senate: Jim Webb (D) vs. George Allen®

Back in my childhood home, there was a doozy of a Senate race. George Allen, thought to be a 2008 Presidential frontrunner until he got the “brain miggly” and started calling dark-skinned Virginians by obscure racial epithets, once had a comfortable lead. But slow and steady wins the race, and Jim Webb, who had both the military and conservative credentials as former Secretary of the Navy under Reagan, managed to pull back into it. Even my Mom, who considers herself a Republican, said that if she’d been home instead of down here helping us with Kate, said she would have voted for Webb. As she put it, “All you saw out of Allen was how bad Webb was – he never talked about what he would do.” Plus there were the pre-voting-day dirty tricks of people calling Democratic voters and warning them that their voter information was out of date and they could be arrested if they tried to vote, or robo-calling houses 6-7 times in a row with messages that sounded like they were from the Democrat.

The race is probably headed to recount, but it looks like Webb currently has an 8000-ish vote lead, so I anticipate it will hold up and send Webb to the Senate, and possibly send the Senate to the Democrats.

US House NC11 – Heath Schuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor®

Charles Taylor was an 8-term pork king, but he famously changed his vote for the CAFTA agreement to “yes”, which didn’t sit well in his district, which has seen an incredible loss of textile jobs to Central America. Heath Schuler was best known as a good former college football player and a shitty former NFL player. But in a sign of how weak the Republicans were this year, Schuler knocked off Taylor and will be heading to Washington. The fact that he’s a pro-gun, anti-abortion Democrat also serves to blunt the (false) Republican talking point that Democrats are lefty-lefty communist liberals, every one, so that’s a good sign.

US House NC8: Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes®

This matchup shouldn’t have even been on the radar. A political newcomer (Kissell) against an established campaigner in Hayes, in a very Republican district. If you want to see how pissed off the electorate is at the Republicans this year, look no further than this race. In what should have been a 70-30% blowout for Hayes, he’s in a statistical dead heat, holding a scant 470-vote advantage as of now. Of course, Hayes coming out against CAFTA, then selling a “yes” vote to Denny Hastert, all the while watching textile jobs in his district flee south of the border, didn’t help his case. I anticipate Hayes to retain, but the fact that anyone’s still talking about this race on Wednesday speaks volumes.

Virginia Constitution: Ban Civil Unions

Ah well, enlightenment can only go so far, as you see by this amendment passing. Passing an amendment to something that was already illegal seems silly, but you never know what those activist judges will do after a night of hitting the hookah pipe. Last time they did that, they legislated that pesky Jim Crow stuff right off the lawbooks, those bastards.

From my understanding of the amendment, it may have farther-reaching effects on heterosexual couples than just keeping them from catching “teh ghey,” but nobody really reads that far, do they?

Recap

After years of blaming the boogeymen of “liberals” and “gays” to cover for their inability to accomplish anything, the hens came home to roost for the Republicans this year. Seriously, they’ve had total control of all three branches of government for six years, can you think of anything they’ve been able to accomplish besides some token tax cuts, massive overspending, ignoring Afghanistan, and getting us bogged down in Iraq? Can you think of any other Congress that has acted like a complete rubber stamp to the Executive branch?

Year after year, the Republicans tried to distract the populace with fear of whatever the buzzword of the day was, while boning pages, taking bribes, covering up crimes, having shady dealing with lobbyists. They counted on the cowed media to ignore coverage of their misdeeds while whipping up false anger over things like Terry Schiavo. For the first time in years, the people woke up to see that their promises of “small government and honest dealings” were just lies. Now we get a Congress that won’t just roll over for the Executive, and hopefully the Democrats will be emboldened by the win to actually put forth plans of their own. They’ve got the ball now, they’ve got to do something with it.

And part of me would just love, after years of the Majority party completely shitting on the Minority party (to the point of even refusing to tell them where committee meetings were, breaking the House rules, and outright taking the gavel and going home when they didn’t like the way things were going), if they got a taste of their own medicine for a couple of years.

All in all, it was a good day to be a voter.

Stay The Course

Posted on October 25th, 2006 in Politics by minter

Ol’ Mr. President says “We’ve never been Stay The Course.” I think someone else would disagree with that.

An Open Letter To Vernon Robinson

Posted on October 18th, 2006 in Politics by minter

Dear Mr. Robinson,

You are batshit crazy.

Sincerely,

H. Wade Minter

Knowing Your Target Audience

Posted on September 7th, 2006 in Politics by minter

Somehow, and I’m not sure if it was random or David has been up to his practical jokes again, but I’ve been subscribed to the Republican National Committee email list (under Holly’s name, in fact) for a while, so I get to see the missives they send out to the loyal right-wing faithful. They sent this scare piece out today:

Dear Holly ,

Impeachment. Cutting and running from the War on Terror. Key defense systems dismantled. Tax cuts repealed. Speaker Pelosi.

That’s what America could look like one year from now if Democrats take the majority.

Seriously? Do you promise? Because that’s sounding a lot better than cold-war-Soviet-esque secret prisons.

I don’t think they’re getting the expected reaction from me.

Year Of The Round

Posted on September 5th, 2006 in Politics by minter

Here in Wake County, the latest brouhaha dominating the news, now that Duke Lacrosse has gone away, is the Wake County School Board’s plan to gain more student seats without building more schools by converting a number of elementary (and a smaller number of middle) schools from the traditional (aka “We all work on the farm during the summer”) calendar to the year-round (aka “We live in the 20th Century”) calendar.

As with any plan, there are pros and cons involved, but in this case, there’s a small but vocal group of parents who are, quite frankly, completely losing their shit. I’m talking Jerry Springer style. I’m amazed we haven’t seen chairs thrown at a school board meeting yet.

It all started when people noticed that Wake County, which is experiencing explosive population growth, didn’t really have enough space for all the kids who were moving in. So the school board did their calculating and came up with a number. A large number, but a number nonetheless. They figured that in order to build enough traditional-calendar schools to keep up with the growth just in the near term, they’d need a, say, $1.1 billion bond. So they ran some polls and tests with the voters, and found that voters would not support a school bond that large, and would vote it down in November. They didn’t poll me, but hey, sampling methods and all that. And voters seemed equally unwilling to put up with a more direct tax hike to finance the school building. The school board slashed a few hundred million off of the bond until they got down to a number that studies showed might pass.

So given that information, the school board still needed a few thousand more seats in order for children to have, y’know, a place to sit. So they had two choices – sprinkle magic pixie dust over the existing schools to have them magically grow more seats overnight, or convert schools to the year-round calendar.

For those who aren’t familiar with the year-round school concept, it’s pretty simple. The traditional school year (September-June-ish, with three months off in the middle of the summer) is a relic of a century ago, where the strong-backed young’uns had to go home to the fields to work the crops, and couldn’t be bothered with fancy-pants “book learning” during those months. But now, especially in urban areas like Raleigh, it just means that school buildings sit empty for 1/4 of the year, and kids have this massive break to forget everything they learned in the previous grade.

The year-round school concept, though, divides kids into four “tracks.” At any given time (barring holidays), three tracks are in the school and one track is on break. The school year runs roughly in four 12-week blocks, so a kid on a given track is in class for nine weeks of the 12, with a three-week break at some point during that time. So the kids go the same number of days, except they get more frequent, smaller breaks, and the school is in operation all year (thus the clever name). It boils down to a building running a year-round calendar can get ballpark 33% more students educated than the same building on a standard calendar.

So, great, right? Year round schools. Everybody wins. The school system can manage more students with the same number of buildings. The financial tightwads can avoid building schools. And the kids can work in an environment more conducive to learning than to picking tobacco. How can you go wrong?

Well, you can go wrong by having rabid parents screaming in school board meetings that “Help! Help! I’m being oppressed!” They loudly state that their lives will be unable to recover if little Johnny has to go to a year-round school. They wave studies “proving” that adding more year-round schools will somehow send the Wake County economy into a tailspin. They say that the school board is removing “school choice” from them by forcing their child to go year-round (of course, in my old house, I was zoned to a traditional-calendar school, and if I wanted Hayley to go year-round, I’d have to apply to one of the few year-round schools in the area, with a slim chance that I’d get picked). They rail about child care problems, as if they live in a world where child care options wouldn’t adapt to the new schedule, instead saying “No, I don’t think I’ll make money any more. This whole calendar thing is too tough. Sorry.”

There’s no hard data, but I’m willing to bet that this same vocal group shares quite a bit of overlap with the voters who wouldn’t pay the bond price to build enough traditional-calendar schools. So that’s a credibility hit right there. So as someone who has been following the issue for a while now, I’m seeing a substantial amount of vitrol from the anti-year-round side, but no workable solutions.

The school board voted today to turn 19 elementary schools into year-round. Good on them. Barring the inevitable lawsuit from a disgruntled parent, that should put the matter to rest. The anti-year-round faction is promising consequences and reprocussions at the ballot box in November, but I’m thinking that come Election Day, they’ll find out how small their vocal minority really is. Until then, though, expect regular news reports about the sky, and the rate at which it’s falling.

Doubletake Of The Day

Posted on August 31st, 2006 in Politics by minter

As seen on the front page of cnn.com just now:

Bush 3.0 releases patch for Iraq war

I knew from the beginning this war was only in “beta”.

Confusion Corner

Posted on March 22nd, 2006 in Politics by minter

Looks like my Alma Mater got a shoutout on Wonkette today, in reference to the Washington Post’s new 24-year-old “conservative blogger” Ben Domenech.

Seems like a weird guy. And a strange “Hey, I know that place” moment.

I bet he wrote for “The Remant”.

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